The Signal
Diesel, U.S. average
$6.382
Down 14.7 cents
Second-highest EIA print on record, behind last week’s $6.529. Up $2.63 on the year.
Tender rejections
14%
Down from 14.5%
Holding near 14%, a second peak near Labor Day levels. Van freight and the Midwest carry the pressure.
Van spot linehaul
$2.17/mi
Flat week over week
Up 32% year over year. All-in van rose 5 cents to $3.01, all of it fuel.
Reefer tightness
20%
Rejections, harvest-driven
Running near 20%. Linehaul eased 2 cents to $2.71; load-to-truck 18.3.
Sources: EIA on-highway diesel, week of Sept. 28 (printed Sept. 29); FreightWaves SONAR tender rejection update, Sept. 25; DAT One and DAT iQ weekly data, Sept. 20 to 26. Last-issue comparison is the No. 4 tile.
At the Gate
Diesel broke its climb. EIA’s U.S. average fell 14.7 cents to $6.382, the first weekly decline since August 31. The East Coast fell 13.1 cents to $6.137.
Trucks are still scarce. DAT truck posts ran 26% below a year ago for van and 20% for reefer, and the van load-to-truck ratio rose to 11.4.
Ocean rates held high into Golden Week. Drewry’s Shanghai to Los Angeles rate rose 2% to $7,838 per 40-foot box, with 15 transpacific blank sailings set for next week.
Mode Strip
| Metric | Dry Van | Reefer | LTL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | $2.17/mi linehaul, $3.01 all-in (DAT) | $2.71/mi linehaul, $3.63 all-in (DAT) | Old Dominion 4.9% GRI, effective Oct. 5 |
| Tightness | Load-to-truck 11.4; leads national rejections | Load-to-truck 18.3; rejections near 20% | Minimum charges rise with the GRI; fuel surcharges track diesel |
| Week over week | Linehaul flat; all-in up 5 cents | Linehaul down 2 cents; all-in up 4 cents | No new carrier GRI found this week |
| Kingsgate read | Tight | Tight | Watch |
Intermodal: SONAR has reported long-haul moves shifting to rail, with East Coast rail absorbing more of that volume. Rail can relieve cost this fall; it will not shorten transit.
Canada, Alaska, Hawaii: Canada lanes quiet; no new border or rail disruption found this week. Hurricane Nolo is forecast to pass roughly 300 miles west of Kauai midweek with heavy rain bands and high surf; confirm Hawaii ocean and air cutoffs. Alaska quiet.
The Lead
Fuel eases, capacity stays thin
Four pressure points, one invoice. Each comes with a number and a move to make this week.
Pressure 1 / Coverage
Rejections parked near 14%
The national tender rejection rate held near 14% late last week, a second peak close to Labor Day levels, and van freight is doing most of the pushing. Van is 60 to 70 percent of all tendered freight, so a small move there hits routing guides hard. SONAR ties the pressure to fragile capacity: tender volumes remain below April. Columbus, Joliet, Allentown and Elizabeth, New Jersey are the markets on its watch list.
Action: Reprice lanes that failed twice in September instead of adding more backup carriers.
Pressure 2 / Price
Our backyard prices near the top
DAT’s national van linehaul held at $2.17 a mile for a second week, up 32 percent year over year and 34 cents above the nine-year seasonal average. All-in van rose 5 cents to $3.01, and fuel made up the whole gain. Ohio River origins averaged $2.62 a mile, second in the country behind the Great Lakes at $2.66, and 38.3 percent above last year. DAT’s 35-day forecast puts van near $2.14 by late October.
Action: Price Ohio Valley outbound on today’s market; spring bid rates will not hold.
Pressure 3 / Mode and Mix
Harvest holds reefer tight; LTL resets Monday
SONAR puts reefer rejections near 20 percent and expects harvest to keep them elevated for the next few months. DAT reefer linehaul eased 2 cents to $2.71, but the load-to-truck ratio sat at 18.3, and DAT reports Yakima apple loads into the East topping $14,000. LTL is firming on schedule: Old Dominion’s 4.9 percent general rate increase, with higher minimum charges, takes effect Monday, October 5.
Action: Tender produce four to five days out and flag LTL lanes that price off the ODFL tariff.
Pressure 4 / Cost
Diesel dips, supply stays short
EIA’s U.S. diesel average fell 14.7 cents to $6.382 for the week of September 28, the first decline in four weeks and still $2.628 above a year ago. EIA’s September outlook expects distillate inventories to fall below 100 million barrels and stay under the five-year low through most of 2027. Members of Congress have proposed diesel export limits; on September 23 the White House said a flat ban is not under consideration. No restriction is in effect.
Action: Budget fourth-quarter fuel at current levels until EIA shows a sustained decline.
EIA Diesel by Region
| Region | Sept. 28 | Change | Sept. 21 | Year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. average | $6.382 | Down 14.7 cents | $6.529 | $3.754 |
| East Coast (PADD 1) | $6.137 | Down 13.1 cents | $6.268 | See note |
| Midwest (PADD 2) | Pending | Pending | $6.680 | See note |
| Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Pending | Pending | $6.177 | See note |
| Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) | Pending | Pending | $6.340 | See note |
| West Coast (PADD 5) | Pending | Pending | $7.456 | See note |
| California | Pending | Pending | $8.246 | See note |
Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, printed September 29, 2026. Regional Sept. 28 values beyond the East Coast were not verified at print and are left blank rather than estimated. On Sept. 21, the West Coast ran $1.19 above the East Coast and the Midwest ran 15 cents above the U.S. average. Your fuel surcharge follows your contract schedule.
Corridor Watch
Where the map will slow your freight this week.
01 / Southwest
I-10, I-19, I-25
Hurricane Polo came ashore near Guaymas, Mexico, Tuesday morning, moving northeast at 17 mph. Its moisture tracks toward Arizona and New Mexico, where repeated flood watches this month left soils saturated. Build a day of slack into Nogales crossings and I-10 and I-25 appointments late this week.
02–03 / Ohio Valley
I-71, I-75, I-70
I-75 through downtown Cincinnati was set to reopen Monday after the Linn Street weekend closure. The northbound Second Street exit stays closed until fall 2028, and ODOT routes through trucks to I-275. Columbus sits on SONAR’s tight-van list. Tender Ohio outbound early.
04–05 / Midwest + Northeast
Chicago and the Northeast
SONAR names Joliet, a major rail hub, as a main driver of sticky rejections, with Allentown and Elizabeth, New Jersey also on watch. Import boxes railing in from Southern California land in the Chicago area. Expect fewer backup accepts on outbound vans.
06 / Pacific Northwest + Tropics
Yakima and Atlantic conditions
Yakima apple season is pulling reefers east at premium rates. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Hanna is far east-northeast of Bermuda with no U.S. threat, and the basin has yet to produce a hurricane this season.
Diesel
Diesel eased 14.7 cents to the second-highest print on record
EIA weekly U.S. on-highway diesel, dollars per gallon, week of Aug. 10 to week of Sept. 28, 2026.
Source: EIA weekly retail on-highway diesel, printed Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The source chart marks the prior series record of $5.810 set in June 2022. Same week a year ago: $3.754. The two figures displayed above are reported values; the original PDF contains a longer historical graph without tabulated intermediate values.
Ports and Imports
September is shaping up as the peak import month of 2026
NRF and Hackett Associates forecast 2.31 million TEU for September, up 9.6 percent year over year and just ahead of July. Volume eases only gradually after that, to 2.11 million in October. In San Pedro Bay, Los Angeles moved 955,907 TEU in August to close its busiest three-month stretch on record, and Long Beach posted its best August at 919,992 TEU. Drewry expects transpacific spot rates to dip ahead of China’s Golden Week even as carriers blank 15 sailings.
What it means: Drayage, transload and inland rail out of Southern California stay busy into October, and those boxes feed Chicago-area ramps where van rejections are already sticky.
U.S. container imports
Million TEU / NRF Global Port Tracker, Sept. 9, 2026
| Month | Million TEU | Status |
|---|---|---|
| July | 2.30 | Actual |
| August | 2.29 | Estimate |
| September | 2.31 | Forecast |
| October | 2.11 | Forecast |
| November | 2.00 | Forecast |
| December | 2.03 | Forecast |
This Week’s Moves
Shippers This Week
- Tender Midwest and Ohio Valley van freight a day earlier than usual. Columbus and Joliet are rejecting more.
- Reprice any lane that failed twice in September. One price that holds costs less than a chain of backup carriers.
- Pull your ODFL tariff exposure before October 5 and check minimum charges on light LTL shipments.
Receivers This Week
- Hold flexible dock slots for Arizona, New Mexico and El Paso inbound late this week if Polo’s rain arrives.
- Import-heavy DCs: plan container unload labor through mid-October. The September peak is still landing.
- Keep live unloads short. Carriers weigh dwell time when they choose which tenders to accept.
Down the Road
This Week
Quarter-end freight meets thin van capacity. Expect rejections near 14% and spot premiums on Midwest and Northeast lanes.
Late October
SONAR history shows October softening after quarter-end before demand builds again. DAT forecasts van linehaul near $2.14.
Into Next Quarter
Imports ease gradually from the September peak, harvest keeps reefer tight, and diesel stays the swing cost.
Sources and methodology
Sources this week: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (Sept. 29, 2026) and Short-Term Energy Outlook (Sept. 9, 2026); DAT Freight & Analytics weekly market reports and DAT iQ RateCast (week of Sept. 20 to 26); FreightWaves SONAR updates (Sept. 10 and Sept. 25); Drewry World Container Index (Sept. 24); NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker (Sept. 9); Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach August cargo reports; Old Dominion Freight Line GRI notice; NWS National and Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (Sept. 29); ODOT Brent Spence Bridge Corridor notices.
SONAR and DAT figures are proprietary and cited as publicly reported. The Gate is published by Kingsgate Logistics for its customers and is market commentary, not a rate quote or a contract of carriage.
As of this issue: This article reflects the market conditions and forecasts described for the week of September 28, 2026. Prices, advisories and operational conditions may have changed.